Is Calexit Possible? A Scenario-Based Analysis of Politics, Economics, and International Law

California , often called the "Empire of the West," rivals many nations in GDP, technology, culture, and climate policy. But what if this powerful state actually seceded from the United States and became an independent country? Calexit —short for "California Exit"—is more than a political slogan. It raises fundamental questions about constitutional law, economic viability, foreign policy, and global recognition . In this post, we analyze whether California could ever realistically break away from the Union and what the consequences might be. 1. The Origins and Background of the Calexit Movement The term “Calexit” gained traction following the 2016 U.S. presidential election. After Donald Trump’s victory, many Californians—especially progressive groups and citizens—began to express dissatisfaction with federal policies. Conflicts over immigration, climate change, gun control, and LGBTQ+ rights highlighted a growing political diverge...